Four years ago Tesla promised a Cybertruck with a 500 mile battery range priced at $39,900, according to Wired.
On November 30, Tesla laid an egg — announcing a base Cybertruck with 50% less range — 250 miles — priced at $60,990, noted Wired, which is 53% above the amount promised in November 2019.
With two million “reservationists” — who paid $100 to preorder the Cybertruck — many questions come to mind:
- How many reservationists will ultimately buy what looks to be a gigantic disappointment for anyone who wants to use the vehicle for more than showing off?
- Will buyer disappointment translate into lower than expected Cybertruck revenue for Tesla?
- Does the 43% fall from Tesla’s peak stock price mean the EV-maker’s shares are now bargain priced?
I do not know how many people will ultimately buy the Cybtertruck. My “base case” scenario is Tesla would generate $2.4 billion in Cybertruck revenue in 2024 and $6.1 billion in 2025.
That is short of Morgan Stanley’s
MS
The investment bank estimates the Cybertruck will generate a tiny fraction of Tesla’s revenue. “By 2025, we forecast Cybertruck will account for less than 5% of Tesla revenues and closer to 0% of profit,” reported the Financial Times.
In the absence of some other growth catalyst, Tesla stock could keep falling further from its $407 a share peak reached in early November 2021.
Tesla’s Cybertruck Launch
The Cybtertruck Tesla announced November 30 was more expensive than promised with less range. Yet its design — which largely met expectations — appeared poised to put pedestrians at risk, according to Streetsblog.
Here are some key Cybertruck features:
- Design: “Apocalypse-bunker-on-wheels.” Social media compared the Cybertruck’s design to “a roided-out Blade Runner jalopy and an industrial refrigerator,” noted Streetsblog
- Elevated body. Despite…
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